global energy crisis Archives

Q1 and Q2 of 2022, can be characterized as globally difficult periods for all many industries, and the solar market is not an exception.

Such events as the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the Natural Gas Crisis in Europe, Zero COVID-19 policy in China in Q2 negatively affected the beginning of Q3. Numerous areas are still trying to solve the consequences of production and international logistics cargo delays.

Eco Green Energy prepared a short price PV modules price report based on current raw material prices, and freight cargo to get up-to-date about what to expect during the second half of this quarter (July- August 2022).

Polysilicon

This week prices for polysilicon are continuing to grow, including mono-grade polysilicon quotation that reached RMB 295/kg, which is nearly 3.57%, which is the highest point since 2021. Many polysilicon businesses focused on executing delayed orders, which is why some urgent orders faced price increases.

PV modules — Figure 1. Polysilicon price trends, update on 6^th of July
Source: EnergyTrend, 2022

Noticing the production and operation status of the polysilicon segment the price rise also was led by production delays that were caused by accidents, power restrictions, or equipment maintenance.

Even when production of multi polysilicon in June reached 61.6K, July is a month of significant increase. Due to the Energy Trends report, even with constantly releasing capacity, total polysilicon production will decline, which also will lead to a further price increase.

Wafers

The situation with polysilicon, especially its recent extra need, causes the price growth for wafers. Various wafer businesses are increasing their prices due to cost pressure, while the reduction of polysilicon production has also been transmitted to the wafer segment, where the corresponding production volume has been downward. Yesterday, M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 7.3/pc and RMB 9.65/pc.

M10 mono-Si wafers remain under a structural short supply status and have thus elevated in average concluded prices.

Cells

Cell prices had fully risen this week, with mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 cells concluding at a price of approximately RMB 1.24/W, RMB 1.28/W, and RMB 1.24/W. The tendency for cost lifts fast, compared to the previous week they were 1.17/W, RMB 1.21/W, and RMB 1.175/W relatively.

In addition, cell production and shipping were smooth, as many producers signed orders for July in advance at a small price increase of RMB 0.02/W.

Anyway, M10 mono-Si cells remain under a deficit status, and some businesses increase grow prices following the first-tier businesses up to RMB 1.22/W. Cell prices are likely to carry on with the inflation tendency as wafer prices further ascend.

Moreover, many PV module factories have stopped production because of the high price of cells and other raw materials.

PV Modules

What about modules, mono-Si 166, 182, and 210 modules prices are stable: RMB 1.8/W, RMB 1.95/W, and RMB 1.93/W respectively.

Several PV module makers had started increasing quotations, where some 210 module quotations to more than RMB 2/W, yet the volume of concluded transactions is relatively small. As various upstream segments initiate a new wave of inflation, solar modules will increase prices alongside the additional elevation of polysilicon prices.

Glass

Glass prices remained sturdy this week, with 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses sitting at RMB 28-29/㎡ and RMB 22-23/㎡.

Freight cost

Furthermore, freight cost remains stable and even lower than in Q1 and Q2. Due to Freightos Data, at the beginning of July, the Global Container Index fell to USD 6,577 9 (-6%). Prices from China to European, and African directions keep balanced, while to South America increased (+4%).

To conclude the current situation with a Price increase

To sum up, Eco Green Energy suggests considering all the facts about the rice increase and placing the orders in July. As China has resumed its production, we observe a sharp price rise, and such a trend will be for the next two months.

Although the freight cost is under favorable tendency, there is some price lift for PV raw materials such as polysilicon, wafers, and cells. It is significant to consider the no rapid price drop during the end of July and August.

We recommend not to hesitate to confirm your orders as soon as possible to avoid unnecessary costs for your business.

Please note that Eco Green Energy will provide prices based on the current situation. We will not cancel or postpone the shipment.

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The world completed 2021 year with an impressive number of installed solar capacity – 843,086MW, and what is more stunning is that many countries continue to increase the number of installations.

Based on the achieved results, The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) announced the World Energy Transitions Outlook at the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue. The report highlights the priority actions that will need to be taken between now and 2030 to keep the goal of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C within reach.

In our third delivery of the Global Energy Crisis series, Eco Green Energy prepared a short overview of how the renewable sector pretends to develop, especially the solar one.

Climate regulation 1.5 °C scenario to prevent Global Energy Crisis

Global Energy Crisis KPI up to 2030 — Figure 1 Key performance indicators for achieving the 1.5°C Scenario by 2030
Source: IRENA, 2022

According to defined KPIs by 2030, it is required to ensure renewables will reach at least 65% of the global annual energy mix in 2030, up from 14% at present.

Secondly, the Outlook forecasts reaching a total of 8 000 GW of renewable capacity in this decade. In addition, hydropower capacity will increase by 1500 GW, which is 30% higher than in 2020. PV installation capacity will grow up to 5 200GW.

Furthermore, the IRENA report highlights that the share of direct electricity in total final energy consumption (TFEC) must rise from 21% to 30%. It means the deployment of energy efficiency measures must increase 2.5 times. It is possible expansion the electrification of energy services, especially in the transport sector. Moreover, energy efficiency will improve through the modernization of existing buildings as the application of electric technologies for domestic heating.

Under the energy transition scenario set out in the Outlook, global energy-related emissions fall by almost 30% this decade.

Anticipation of the renewable sector global development under the Global Energy Crisis

The Outlook suggests scaling up power generation capacity due to the 1.5°C targets. Asia, North America, and Europe may account for more than 80% of installations by 2030.

Figure 2 Global total power generation and the installed capacity of power generation sources in the 1.5°C Scenario in 2018, 2030 and 2050
Source: IRENA, 2022

Asia needs to scale up four times to reach more than 5 400 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, while North America and Europe will have to ramp up installations by around five-fold and three-fold, respectively. The scaling factors for the Middle East and Africa are even greater. In fact, renewable energy now is the cheapest power in most regions, and due to the newly commissioned utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) projects, the price fell by 85% between 2010 and 2020.

What about solar energy?

Unlimited technical potential led to the quick expansion of solar PV. As was mentioned, by 2030, the installed capacity will reach nearly 5200 GW. Meeting those targets will involve annual additions of 450 GW in this decade, most of it in the form of utility-scale installations.

Global Energy Crisis — Figure 3 Regional distribution of total installed capacity (GW) in 2020, 2030, 2050 and
cumulative investments (USD trillion) of renewables for power generation in the 1.5°C Scenario across regions, 2021-2050
Source: IRENA, 2022

Over the past decade, Asia added 40 GW of solar PV each year – and nearly 80 GW in 2020. With such annual additions, it is possible that Asia (China and India) will continue to dominate the market.

Due to that, Europe and North America doubled their solar PV installations in 2020 over the average levels in the previous decade. The two regions are expected to account for 19% (98GW) and 14% (55 GW)of global solar PV installations by 2030.

Figure 4 Cumulative global solar PV installed capacity by region 2010-2030
Source: Globaldata, 2019

Solar energy is one of the most important renewable resources available in the Middle East and Africa. Hence, these regions should strongly focus on solar PV projects, as they will require 70 GW of yearly installations in this decade. Additionally, Latin America will have to add 20 GW each year and Oceania/Pacific more than 2 GW.

Although solar PV has made good progress in recent years, there are obstacles to its growth, such as limitations in grid connection and flexibility, a lack of skilled workers, or unfavoured policies. The solar sector is possible to make more attractive with innovative market designs and business models such as peer-to-peer electricity trading and community ownership. Also, providing time-of-use tariffs and net billing schemes will positively influence.

EGE Solar Global Contribution

For that reason, our PV modules are the best choice for transition energy security with high-efficiency panels (21.40%) and top-notch 12BB M12 Half-cell cut technology. Eco Green Energy always contributes efficient solutions by offering excellent quality PV modules. Our partners worldwide have already installed more than +70 projects, from Residential-Office applications to Large Industrial Projects.

Here is one exciting solar plant near Rio Hurtado, Ovalle, Coquimbo Region. Our EPC completed the project with 300 pcs of EOS poly 340W, providing up to 18.04% efficiency. The total capacity of this solar plant is 100kW.

Another installation is from the heart of Asia, Pakistan, and was completed for flour mill production in Sirewari, near Sanghar district in Khipro city. Our distributor covered the mill’s area with 104 pcs of EGE Atlas 540W 10BB Mono. Our Atlas series contain Gallium-dopped technology with 21.28% maximized efficiency, ensuring pure energy.

Our authorized distributor completed the project for commercial purposes in charming New Caledonia. He applied 185pcs of the high-trend EGE ATLAS 540w Bifacial solar panels. The total power output is 100kW.

Feel free also to contact us for more information: info@eco-greenenergy.com

Keep yourself up-to-date on Solar News, Trends, Applications, and more with our weekly LinkedIn Newsletter.

For more information about our PV module Atlas Plus, also visit our product page.

References

IRENA, 2022 – World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Mar/IRENA_World_Energy_Transitions_Outlook_2022.pdf
Globaldata, 2019 Global solar photovoltaic capacity expected to exceed 1,500GW by 2030, says GlobalData https://www.globaldata.com/global-solar-photovoltaic-capacity-expected-to-exceed-1500gw-by-2030-says-globaldata/
Offshore energy, 2022 Answers to energy security and climate change concerns lie in energy transition, IRENA says https://www.offshore-energy.biz/answers-to-energy-security-and-climate-change-concerns-lie-in-energy-transition-irena-says/
World Economic Forum, 2021 This chart shows how fast renewable energy must grow to reach the world’s net-zero targets https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/doubling-renewable-energy-net-zero-emissions/#:~:text=The%20IEA%20says%20almost%20two,years%20%2D%20double%20the%20current%20rate.
United Nations, 2021 Proposed global roadmap shows how universal access to sustainable energy can be achieved by 2030 https://www.un.org/en/desa/sustainable-energy-can-be-achieved-2030
Edie, 2022 World leaders must ‘radically’ scale up renewable energy now, IRENA warns https://www.edie.net/world-leaders-must-radically-scale-up-renewable-energy-now-irena-warns/

Price increase for PV modules in July: What to expect next?